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Polish opposition leader Tusk declares win after exit poll shows ruling conservatives lose majority_我的网站

一 |     WARSAW, Poland -- Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday's parliamentary election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.That party, Law and Justice, has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989. In some places people were still in line when polling officially closed, but all were allowed to vote. If the result predicted by an exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any other party but not enough to be able to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature. The Ipsos exit poll suggested that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.It also showed that three opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It won 31.6% of votes, the exit poll said. “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is end of Law and Justice rule," Tusk added.Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row. “We must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed," Kaczynski said.If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a government.It falls to President Andrzej Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a government.Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority."Three opposition parties, Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our democracy.”Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and others.“This is just the beginning of reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air today,” Staszewski said.Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we have our future.”Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.During the campaign many Poles described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.Turnout Sunday appeared to be even higher than the 63% of voters who turned out for the 1989 election that led to the ouster of the communists. Despite many uncertainties ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44% of the vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.There is a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. A political change could open the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.Piotr Buras, of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing fatigue” with the government among Poles, "beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” The fate of Poland's relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia's war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt by the government to galvanize its supporters. Many voters were seen refusing to take part in the referendum.___Associated Press journalists Kwiyeon Ha, Pietro De Cristofaro and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。

二 |     “굴복이 더 큰 역풍 불러올 수 있어” 한국인 55% ‘美 비호감’, 역대 최고                    AP연합뉴스 미국 국내외에서 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령에 대한 저항이 본격화하고 있다는 뉴욕타임스(NYT) 분석이 나왔다. 트럼프 대통령 지지율이 역대 최저 수준까지 떨어진 가운데 그의 압박에 순응해도 공격이 끝나지 않는다는 인식이 확산하면서 ‘굴복의 시대’가 저물고 있다는 것이다. NYT는 25일(현지시간) 분석 기사에서 마크 카니 캐나다 총리가 트럼프의 관세 협박에 맞서기로 선택한 것을 언급하며 이처럼 분석했다. 유럽 정상들의 이란 전쟁 동참 거부, 베냐민 네타냐후 이스라엘 총리의 가자평화안 반대 등도 대표 사례로 꼽혔다. 유럽의 태도 변화에는 트럼프의 그린란드 장악 시도가 전환점이 됐다는 분석이 나온다. 제러미 샤피로 유럽외교관계위원회 연구원은 “그린란드 문제는 유럽의 주권에 대한 공격이었다”며 “유럽은 그 시점에서 트럼프의 탐욕과 요구에는 끝이 없다는 사실을 깨닫기 시작했다”고 말했다. 미국 내부에서도 대학과 로펌이 트럼프 행정부 정책에 맞서고, 채권시장은 트럼프의 재정정책에 우려를 나타내고 있다. 과거 트럼프와의 명예훼손 소송을 끝내기 위해 1600만 달러(약 221억원)를 지급했던 ABC 방송은 지난 18일 트럼프 행정부가 방송 면허를 위협했다며 소송을 제기했다. 공화당 내부에서도 트럼프 영향력이 예전만 못한 징후가 곳곳에서 포착되고 있다. 트럼프가 지지 선언을 한 후보들이 당내 경선 10곳에서 패배했다. 다음 달 출간되는 신간 ‘비겁함의 초상들’ 저자 제이컵 와이즈버그는 예일대가 트럼프 행정부와 다양성 프로그램 폐지 문제를 두고 협상에 나서자 비판 여론이 쏟아진 것을 언급하며 “이제는 트럼프에 굴복하는 것이 더 큰 역풍을 불러올 수 있다”고 분석했다. 혈맹인 한국에서도 트럼프 2기 출범 이후 미국에 대한 반감이 커지고 있다. 퓨리서치센터가 24일 발표한 조사에서 미국에 대해 부정적이라고 답한 한국인은 55%로 지난해(39%)보다 16% 포인트 늘어 역대 최고였다. 미국에 대한 비호감도가 호감도를 앞선 것도 ‘효순·미선양 사건’으로 반미 감정이 고조됐던 2003년 이후 처음이다. 。

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